retech-mtbf | decision making

Decision Making:

4.The Product Development Case

5.The Decision Proceeding

My Decisions

Goal Oriented Activities

All human activities are purpose driven. In the end, we need to ask ourselves if the goal has been achieved and to decide if we end or go anything further and if so, what it is. From this standpoint, all human activities end up in certain decisions at certain stages in one way or the other.

Things can certainly go wrong for bad decisions. Decision making particularly means the actions we make choices and act. Obviously, not every single things we do during a process we go through for and towards the final decision is of the decision-making type activities. We hope everything go right to end up the right decision.

Therefore, to categorize and differentiate human activities, and then to clearly distinguish every single one of them is a necessary first step to reach right decisions. In the case of product reliability, inherent uncertainty of a product determines reliability an ultimate decision-making issue.

1.Decision-making Type Activity

The Ultimate Decision Question

-A decision comes with a decision question.

-In the end of goal oriented human activities, a question about whether the goal has been achieved will be answered, although reaching a conclusion may not be an issue.

-For outcomes of the activities with inherent uncertainties, this question always lead to a decision.

A Decision Theorem

1.All decisions come with certain goal-oriented human activity, and so all decisions are purpose driven and meant to serve interests of a particular party (or parties).

2.All goal-oriented activity at certain stage can lead to a decision question about whether the expected objective of the activity has been achieved.

3.In the case where a decision is needed for such a goal-oriented activity, certain criteria are essential to the decision, and so they are certainly known and can be stated.
--3a.the criterion always exists and states: if the objective has been achieved?

Key Factors that complicate a Decision

-human effort in phases

-decision criteria

-Decision logic

NOT Decision-making Activity

1.Activities not for decision making or of what don't have to be decision decision

-To decide: it ends in a decision.

-To determine: it ends in findings.

In fact, "Deciding How to Decide" is a good example of what come out of determining instead of a decision

(see "Deciding How to Decide –The Decisions to Start With")

Converting a Decision Making Question

A determining question:
-what should I do to achieve the objective?
should I do what I think I can do to achieve the objective, or something else?

A decision-making question:
-which should I choose, option A or B?
what can I do to determine which one to choose?

Data-driven and Evidence-based Decisions

1.Activities not for decision making or of what don't have to be decision decision

2.Reliability is the likelihood of an objective to be achieved for a product to function satisfactorily in field.

2.Reliability -an Ultimate Decision-making Issue

Design and Quality: NOT Reliability

Reliability -an Ultimate Decision-making Issue

Risk Management in Reliability

what risk management closed but not efficient

Goal Oriented Activities:

1.Decision-making Type Activity

-The Ultimate Decision-making Question

-Key Factors that complicate a Decision

-NOT Decision-making Activity

-Converting a Decision Making Question

-Data-driven and Evidence-based Decisions

2.Reliability -an Ultimate Decision-making Issue

-Reliability growth